2013 Jobs: Manufacturing Vs Waiters/Bartenders

One comment

1. We shared this comment to a recent (Feb. 2020) post over at Wolf Street:
   Link to the article (you’ll need to scroll almost to the bottom of the thread or just search “CoventryLeague” or “ZeroHedge” to get there quicker):

   https://wolfstreet.com/2020/02/11/ok-it-gets-sticky-job-openings-plunge-the-most-since-the-great-recession/?unapproved=229758&moderation-hash=b4727964113d4fd285d9a4ba23f66bc7#comment-229758
   _____

   WisdomSeeker, You’re right about the ZeroHedge trope.

   However, I think ZH was quite transparent in its charts and source data.

   For example, it used “Waiter & Bartender” to make a point about the surge in jobs under the FRED category “All Employees: Leisure and Hospitality: Food Services and Drinking Places (CES7072200001)” and compared it to the plummeting of jobs categorized as “All Employees, Manufacturing (MANEMP).” No hidden agenda – ZH disclosed this data/descriptions in the first paragraph of its blog.

   I’d encourage anyone to view the FRED data going back to at least the 1940s (mfg) and you’ll see a disturbing pattern. The turning point was 1979/1980 and the initial downturn/job losses happened quickly (~3 years).

   Mfg jobs (often decent paying ones):
   Mid-1979 (19.5m);
   mid-1990 (16.6m);
   mid-2010 (11.5m);
   mid-2019 (12.8m).

   Now look at the Food Services and Drinking Places category (what ZeroHedge calls “Waiter & Bartender” to get people’s attention and wake them up from their slumber):

   Mid-1979 (no FRED data w/ this classification)
   Mid-1990 (6.5m);
   mid-2010 (9.4m);
   mid-2019 (12.0m).

   So, from 1990 to 2020:

   * Mfg jobs declined by 3.8m jobs (or -22.9% of base)

   * Food Services and Drinking Places jobs increased by 5.5m (or +84.6% of base)

   ZeroHedge justifiably used the “Waiter & Bartender” trope to make a point that is difficult to rationally refute by using objective FRED data.

   ** In less than one generation (since 1979), the U.S. has lost more than one-third of its mfg base (in number of jobs)!

   ** “Waiter & Bartender” jobs have likely tripled in number of jobs since 1979 (it has practically doubled since 1990, after all).

   Here is CoventryLeague’s Blogentary that referenced the ZH post and source data (c. 2013):

   coventryleague [DOT] com/blogentary/2013-jobs-manufacturing-vs-waitersbartenders/